Just to add a thought to the conversation, and maybe this has been
mentioned somewhere but I missed it, with regards to electronic
communication technologies, the faster diffusion rates (which also
depend on when you peg the beginning of the technology, I think
Winston's "Media, Technology, and Society" talks about that) must be
considered in their historical context.


So, yes cell phones diffused quickly (at least recently), but they
diffused in a world awash with and, importantly, used to, electronic
communication techs (ECTs). The same is true of other techs. It seems
that more recent ECTs have diffused faster, and if the
electronically-awash world (the historical setting) is having an
effect, it will help faster diffusion rates. I doubt it explains all
of it, but perhaps it explains some. 


So the DVD diffused rapidly, but a similar technology, videodiscs,
failed to diffuse. (Clearly there are reasons for this.) VCRs diffused
at a certain pace, but tape-based television recording was tried in
the 50s, 60s, and early 70s before Betamax and VHS were rolled out.
Does one say "this technology" meaning a specific embodiment? If so,
first generation cell phones are not the same as those new phones with
cameras in them. Defining a starting point for a technology is
difficult and will depend on the research question, but since so many
technologies these days are actually technological systems, they have
a large number of components with different histories, and the ideas
behind those components have different histories as well.


So, the Internet, do we measure it from 1993(?), or 1969, or on
earlier ideas? Of course "the Internet" of 2003 is not "the Internet"
of 1993.


ndp...



On Thursday, November 13, 2003, at 06:59 PM, Collette Snowden wrote:


<excerpt><bold><italic>>Bernie Hogan wrote

</italic></bold>#1 DVD is diffusing faster than the Internet, as is
the mobile phone in many

places. It is not unprecedented. Furthermore, the diffusion curve here

suggests that television might have been as steep


 

Hi all,

 

I must support Bernie Hogan's point about the mobile/cellular phone -
I am constantly looking for data on mobile/cellular phone uptake and
penetration rates ( because it is changing so fast) and everything I
see -  while quite variable -  is consistent in showing
that mobile/cellular is far outstripping the Internet in terms of
speed of uptake and penetration.

 

(I have a article I wrote about this issue in 1999, if anyone is
interested contact me directly and I will send you details.)

 

In many places such as China, India, and Africa the lack or
inadequacy of existing telecommunications infrastructure naturally
means that the Internet cannot be adopted (  there is no access to
fixed line for dial-up Internet connection, let alone Broadband),
whereas new mobile networks offer people  relatively cheap access to
basic communications service and with 3G beginning to roll out mobile
internet becomes more viable.

 

The Financial Times ( author -Tobias Buck) reported on November 9 (
Europe Section. p.6)  that  EU mobile phone use tops 80% of populace

This report notes penetration rates are now fast approaching 90 per
cent in many EU member states. In Luxembourg, the total number of
mobile phones now exceeds the number of inhabitants, with 115 phones
for every 100 citizens.


The ITU has regular data for the world which might be useful to many,
with some free data available, see

 

<underline><color><param>1999,1999,FFFF</param>http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/KeyTelecom99.html</color></underline>

 

and with data on most countries and regions also available via the ITU
on an annual basis.

 

On a related note, the postings on this subject remind me of how we
need to be careful about the use of statistics and the representation
of data - but that is a whole other thread! For those in Europe with
an interest in this area the ITU is having a Statistical workshop in
conjuction with the World Summit on Information Society organized by:

UNECE, UNCTAD, ITU, UNESCO Inst. of Statistics, OECD, Eurostat

 

"Monitoring the Information Society: Data, Measurement and Methods"

(Geneva, 8-9 December 2003) See;

<underline><color><param>1999,1999,FFFF</param>http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2003.12.wsis.htm</color></underline>

 

For information about the ITU policy on this subject see:

 

<underline><color><param>1999,1999,FFFF</param>http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/update/edito.htm</color></underline>

 

 

( I am still looking for the perfect graph, and if I ever find it I
promise to post it immediately!)

 

Collette Snowden

School of Communication, Information and New Media

University of South Australia

 



 

 

 




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