Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-users-study-says/#ixzz2rSfZNmEo
http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-user... Facebook’s growth will eventually come to a quick end, much like an infectious disease that spreads rapidly and suddenly dies, say Princeton researchers who are using diseases to model the life cycles of social media. Disease models can be used to understand the mass adoption and subsequent flight from online social networks, researchers at Princeton’s Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering say in a study released Jan. 17. The study has not been peer-reviewed. Updating traditional models on disease spread to assume that “recovery” requires contact with a nondiseased member — i.e., a nonuser of Facebook (“recovered” member of the population) — researchers predicted that Facebook would see a rapid decline, causing the site to lose 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017. Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as their peers lose interest — if the model is correct. ”Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models,” write the researchers. You can check out the full study here. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.4208v1.pdf -- --------------------------------------------------------------- Joly MacFie 218 565 9365 Skype:punkcast WWWhatsup NYC - http://wwwhatsup.com http://pinstand.com - http://punkcast.com VP (Admin) - ISOC-NY - http://isoc-ny.org -------------------------------------------------------------- -
Growth beyond 2017, or even a drop less than 80%, would contest the prediction - but also the model, and perhaps the label, right? There are a large number of ideas, companies, and organizations one continue to thrive despite their being considered a disease. ;)
-----Original Message----- From: air-l-bounces@listserv.aoir.org [mailto:air-l- bounces@listserv.aoir.org] On Behalf Of Joly MacFie Sent: Saturday, January 25, 2014 4:55 PM To: Researchers Cc: Dave Farber Subject: [Air-L] Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose- 80-of-its-users-study-says/#ixzz2rSfZNmEo
http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of- its-users-study-says/
Facebook's growth will eventually come to a quick end, much like an infectious disease that spreads rapidly and suddenly dies, say Princeton researchers who are using diseases to model the life cycles of social media.
Disease models can be used to understand the mass adoption and subsequent flight from online social networks, researchers at Princeton's Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering say in a study released Jan. 17. The study has not been peer-reviewed. Updating traditional models on disease spread to assume that "recovery" requires contact with a nondiseased member - i.e., a nonuser of Facebook ("recovered" member of the population) - researchers predicted that Facebook would see a rapid decline, causing the site to lose 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.
Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as their peers lose interest - if the model is correct. "Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models," write the researchers.
You can check out the full study here. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.4208v1.pdf
-- --------------------------------------------------------------- Joly MacFie 218 565 9365 Skype:punkcast WWWhatsup NYC - http://wwwhatsup.com http://pinstand.com - http://punkcast.com VP (Admin) - ISOC-NY - http://isoc-ny.org -------------------------------------------------------------- - _______________________________________________ The Air-L@listserv.aoir.org mailing list is provided by the Association of Internet Researchers http://aoir.org Subscribe, change options or unsubscribe at: http://listserv.aoir.org/listinfo.cgi/air-l-aoir.org
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Catchy title for the press release. I'm surprised a study that hasn't been peer-reviewed is getting such attention. But then again, FB is a publicly listed company so I guess any research potentially related to its market value will get attention. And hey, I'm just shining more light on the study myself, with this post... I don't know why the authors conceptualise social media adoption using the 'disease spread' analogy. Possibly social media adoption is more like adoption of previous technological innovations such as the telephone, since a social network site provides a flow of services like the telephone does, and there is the network effect. The question is whether FB will be able to maintain its market share of the SNS market and I would have thought economics models of markets might be able to provide insights here, rather than this endemic approach (pun intended) of "let's model anything involving social behaviour [or even market behaviour with network effects] as a disease"... Rob Ackland On 26/01/14 11:54, Joly MacFie wrote: http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-user... Facebook’s growth will eventually come to a quick end, much like an infectious disease that spreads rapidly and suddenly dies, say Princeton researchers who are using diseases to model the life cycles of social media. Disease models can be used to understand the mass adoption and subsequent flight from online social networks, researchers at Princeton’s Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering say in a study released Jan. 17. The study has not been peer-reviewed. Updating traditional models on disease spread to assume that “recovery” requires contact with a nondiseased member — i.e., a nonuser of Facebook (“recovered” member of the population) — researchers predicted that Facebook would see a rapid decline, causing the site to lose 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017. Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as their peers lose interest — if the model is correct. ”Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models,” write the researchers. You can check out the full study here. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.4208v1.pdf -- Assoc. Prof. Robert Ackland Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute Australian National University e-mail: robert.ackland@anu.edu.au<mailto:robert.ackland@anu.edu.au> homepage: https://researchers.anu.edu.au/researchers/ackland-rj project: http://voson.anu.edu.au<http://voson.anu.edu.au/>
Is anyone else reminded of the Times' 1995 cover article on Cyberporn by Martin Rimm? Marj ________________________________________ From: air-l-bounces@listserv.aoir.org <air-l-bounces@listserv.aoir.org> on behalf of Robert Ackland <robert.ackland@anu.edu.au> Sent: Sunday, 26 January 2014 5:00 PM To: air-l@listserv.aoir.org Subject: Re: [Air-L] Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-user... Catchy title for the press release. I'm surprised a study that hasn't been peer-reviewed is getting such attention. But then again, FB is a publicly listed company so I guess any research potentially related to its market value will get attention. And hey, I'm just shining more light on the study myself, with this post... I don't know why the authors conceptualise social media adoption using the 'disease spread' analogy. Possibly social media adoption is more like adoption of previous technological innovations such as the telephone, since a social network site provides a flow of services like the telephone does, and there is the network effect. The question is whether FB will be able to maintain its market share of the SNS market and I would have thought economics models of markets might be able to provide insights here, rather than this endemic approach (pun intended) of "let's model anything involving social behaviour [or even market behaviour with network effects] as a disease"... Rob Ackland On 26/01/14 11:54, Joly MacFie wrote: http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-user... Facebook’s growth will eventually come to a quick end, much like an infectious disease that spreads rapidly and suddenly dies, say Princeton researchers who are using diseases to model the life cycles of social media. Disease models can be used to understand the mass adoption and subsequent flight from online social networks, researchers at Princeton’s Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering say in a study released Jan. 17. The study has not been peer-reviewed. Updating traditional models on disease spread to assume that “recovery” requires contact with a nondiseased member — i.e., a nonuser of Facebook (“recovered” member of the population) — researchers predicted that Facebook would see a rapid decline, causing the site to lose 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017. Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as their peers lose interest — if the model is correct. ”Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models,” write the researchers. You can check out the full study here. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.4208v1.pdf -- Assoc. Prof. Robert Ackland Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute Australian National University e-mail: robert.ackland@anu.edu.au<mailto:robert.ackland@anu.edu.au> homepage: https://researchers.anu.edu.au/researchers/ackland-rj project: http://voson.anu.edu.au<http://voson.anu.edu.au/> _______________________________________________ The Air-L@listserv.aoir.org mailing list is provided by the Association of Internet Researchers http://aoir.org Subscribe, change options or unsubscribe at: http://listserv.aoir.org/listinfo.cgi/air-l-aoir.org Join the Association of Internet Researchers: http://www.aoir.org/
For those who haven't seen yet, Facebook has conducted its own instant (and hilarious) study which finds that "Princeton will have only half its current enrollment by 2018, and by 2021 it will have no students at all." https://www.facebook.com/notes/mike-develin/debunking-princeton/101519474211... Facebook ends by noting, "As data scientists, we wanted to give a fun reminder that not all research is created equal – and some methods of analysis lead to pretty crazy conclusions." Facebook's stock values doesn't seem to have been effected much by either study, though Huffington Post and Gawker's probably got a little boost in traffic as a result. --- Rex Troumbley, PhD candidate Department of Political Science University of Hawaii at Manoa On Sat, Jan 25, 2014 at 8:26 PM, Marj Kibby <marj.kibby@newcastle.edu.au>wrote:
Is anyone else reminded of the Times' 1995 cover article on Cyberporn by Martin Rimm?
Marj
________________________________________ From: air-l-bounces@listserv.aoir.org <air-l-bounces@listserv.aoir.org> on behalf of Robert Ackland <robert.ackland@anu.edu.au> Sent: Sunday, 26 January 2014 5:00 PM To: air-l@listserv.aoir.org Subject: Re: [Air-L] Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-user...
Catchy title for the press release. I'm surprised a study that hasn't been peer-reviewed is getting such attention. But then again, FB is a publicly listed company so I guess any research potentially related to its market value will get attention. And hey, I'm just shining more light on the study myself, with this post...
I don't know why the authors conceptualise social media adoption using the 'disease spread' analogy. Possibly social media adoption is more like adoption of previous technological innovations such as the telephone, since a social network site provides a flow of services like the telephone does, and there is the network effect. The question is whether FB will be able to maintain its market share of the SNS market and I would have thought economics models of markets might be able to provide insights here, rather than this endemic approach (pun intended) of "let's model anything involving social behaviour [or even market behaviour with network effects] as a disease"...
Rob Ackland
On 26/01/14 11:54, Joly MacFie wrote:
http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-user...
Facebook’s growth will eventually come to a quick end, much like an infectious disease that spreads rapidly and suddenly dies, say Princeton researchers who are using diseases to model the life cycles of social media.
Disease models can be used to understand the mass adoption and subsequent flight from online social networks, researchers at Princeton’s Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering say in a study released Jan. 17. The study has not been peer-reviewed. Updating traditional models on disease spread to assume that “recovery” requires contact with a nondiseased member — i.e., a nonuser of Facebook (“recovered” member of the population) — researchers predicted that Facebook would see a rapid decline, causing the site to lose 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.
Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as their peers lose interest — if the model is correct. ”Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models,” write the researchers.
You can check out the full study here. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.4208v1.pdf
--
Assoc. Prof. Robert Ackland Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute Australian National University
e-mail: robert.ackland@anu.edu.au<mailto:robert.ackland@anu.edu.au> homepage: https://researchers.anu.edu.au/researchers/ackland-rj project: http://voson.anu.edu.au<http://voson.anu.edu.au/> _______________________________________________ The Air-L@listserv.aoir.org mailing list is provided by the Association of Internet Researchers http://aoir.org Subscribe, change options or unsubscribe at: http://listserv.aoir.org/listinfo.cgi/air-l-aoir.org
Join the Association of Internet Researchers: http://www.aoir.org/ _______________________________________________ The Air-L@listserv.aoir.org mailing list is provided by the Association of Internet Researchers http://aoir.org Subscribe, change options or unsubscribe at: http://listserv.aoir.org/listinfo.cgi/air-l-aoir.org
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participants (5)
-
Ellis Godard -
Joly MacFie -
Marj Kibby -
Rex Troumbley -
Robert Ackland