Re: [Air-L] Arab spring & social media evidence
There is a very interesting problem here. The fundamental reasons might have little to do with the use of social media except as way of people being able to receive the information which in it self may explain the cause of these revolutions. I really think what is needed is a content analysis of Wikileaks. There was a news article i read which might have been in the NYTimes some time back which pointed out: A lot of material in the famous release of u.s. secret cables by various diplomats and officials confirmed in the mind of many Arabs, especially the young ones, the real extend of corruptions among the leaders and their accumulation of wealth as a result of their leadership positions. While this was felt it was never really proved in the minds of these people until they could read it online or in circulated copies of materials downloaded by others. I did think this was a cause that was worth considering for the Arab Spring. Given they already did not trust their regular news sources Wikileaks was considered a more trusted source. I would like to see a real content analysis of Wikileaks to compare to other explanations for the Arab Spring. -- -- *Distinguished Professor Emeritus Information Systems, NJIT homepage: http://is.njit.edu/turoff *
here's a related (side-step) to the discussion: Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting large-scale human behavior using global news media tone in time and space Kalev Leetaru News is increasingly being produced and consumed online, supplanting print and broadcast to represent nearly half of the news monitored across the world today by Western intelligence agencies. Recent literature has suggested that computational analysis of large text archives can yield novel insights to the functioning of society, including predicting future economic events. Applying tone and geographic analysis to a 30–year worldwide news archive, global news tone is found to have forecasted the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, including the removal of Egyptian President Mubarak, predicted the stability of Saudi Arabia (at least through May 2011), estimated Osama Bin Laden’s likely hiding place as a 200–kilometer radius in Northern Pakistan that includes Abbotabad, and offered a new look at the world’s cultural affiliations. Along the way, common assertions about the news, such as “news is becoming more negative” and “American news portrays a U.S.–centric view of the world” are found to have merit. Full text: http://firstmonday.org/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/3663/... -robert On Sat, Sep 17, 2011 at 7:02 PM, Murray Turoff <murray.turoff@gmail.com>wrote:
There is a very interesting problem here. The fundamental reasons might have little to do with the use of social media except as way of people being able to receive the information which in it self may explain the cause of these revolutions.
I really think what is needed is a content analysis of Wikileaks. There was a news article i read which might have been in the NYTimes some time back which pointed out:
A lot of material in the famous release of u.s. secret cables by various diplomats and officials confirmed in the mind of many Arabs, especially the young ones, the real extend of corruptions among the leaders and their accumulation of wealth as a result of their leadership positions. While this was felt it was never really proved in the minds of these people until they could read it online or in circulated copies of materials downloaded by others.
I did think this was a cause that was worth considering for the Arab Spring. Given they already did not trust their regular news sources Wikileaks was considered a more trusted source.
I would like to see a real content analysis of Wikileaks to compare to other explanations for the Arab Spring.
--
-- *Distinguished Professor Emeritus Information Systems, NJIT homepage: http://is.njit.edu/turoff * _______________________________________________ The Air-L@listserv.aoir.org mailing list is provided by the Association of Internet Researchers http://aoir.org Subscribe, change options or unsubscribe at: http://listserv.aoir.org/listinfo.cgi/air-l-aoir.org
Join the Association of Internet Researchers: http://www.aoir.org/
Any one working on threat forecasting that can be used in planning for emergencies might want to consider the special issue we are doing on forecasting and planning for emergency preparedness and management. The paper by Leetaru is certainly relevant. Call for Papers: *Technological Forecasting and Social Change* Special Issue on “Planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness and management” Guest Editors Murray Turoff, Information Systems, NJIT, Newark, NJ, USA. E-mail: turoff@njit.edu Starr Roxanne Hiltz, Information Systems, NJIT, Newark, NJ, USA. E-mail: hiltz@njit.edu Victor A. Bañuls, University Pablo de Olavide, Seville, Spain. E-mail: vabansil@upo.es Gerd Van Den Eede, Lessius University College, Belgium. E-mail: gerd.van.den.eede@mechelen.lessius.eu This issue will be devoted to planning and foresight in any phase or meaningful combination of phases of Emergency Preparedness and Management: mitigation, risk assessment, resiliency of organizations, training, detection, preparation, response, recovery, and evaluation. The planning and foresight topic may also focus on a given area such as medical, fire, hazards, infrastructure, type of disaster, law enforcement, etc. However, papers treating the integration of planning and foresight across different functions and areas are of significant interest. Insights related to human, organizational, and multi-organizational behavior and considerations are valid topics as well. Theory advancement is welcome but it must be tied to some degree of data dealing with prior examples and/or case studies of disaster or crisis situations. This should be used to support the need for a new approach to any of the emergency planning areas. Case studies are very welcome provided they contain insights for potential improvements in any aspects of planning or foresight methodologies. Improving the effectiveness of collaborative planning, resiliency, and actual collaboration among the many diverse organizations involved in emergency situations is also a valid topic. We will consider and certainly welcome position and requirements based papers from practicing professionals in Emergency Management or Business Continuity providing insight into problems and issues backed up by experience, news sources, and/or the gathering of data. This might also include unique situations such as a new use of existing methodologies, technology, or social media systems. In such cases observations on the requirements to extend the utility of such approaches could be important. Length of the paper is not a factor but content is; we may accept short or long papers if they are deemed to be useful and significant as well as valid. The lack of good case studies in this field is a significant factor in holding back progress in planning. *Papers Due December 1, 2011* For questions you may send a message to any of the editors but please copy Dr. Turoff as well. Manuscripts should be submitted online via Elsevier's online submission system (see: http://www.ees.elsevier.com/tfs ) indicating in the letter that they are for this Special Issue. Please also refer to TFSC's “Guide for Authors” for the styling and formatting guidelines (see: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505740/authorin...). The Website for TFSC contains author information on formatting and submitting an article as well as the journal ranking in planning: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505740/descript... -- On Sat, Sep 17, 2011 at 7:28 PM, nativebuddha <nativebuddha@gmail.com>wrote:
here's a related (side-step) to the discussion:
Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting large-scale human behavior using global news media tone in time and space
Kalev Leetaru
News is increasingly being produced and consumed online, supplanting print and broadcast to represent nearly half of the news monitored across the world today by Western intelligence agencies. Recent literature has suggested that computational analysis of large text archives can yield novel insights to the functioning of society, including predicting future economic events. Applying tone and geographic analysis to a 30–year worldwide news archive, global news tone is found to have forecasted the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, including the removal of Egyptian President Mubarak, predicted the stability of Saudi Arabia (at least through May 2011), estimated Osama Bin Laden’s likely hiding place as a 200–kilometer radius in Northern Pakistan that includes Abbotabad, and offered a new look at the world’s cultural affiliations. Along the way, common assertions about the news, such as “news is becoming more negative” and “American news portrays a U.S.–centric view of the world” are found to have merit.
Full text: http://firstmonday.org/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/3663/...
-robert
On Sat, Sep 17, 2011 at 7:02 PM, Murray Turoff <murray.turoff@gmail.com>wrote:
There is a very interesting problem here. The fundamental reasons might have little to do with the use of social media except as way of people being able to receive the information which in it self may explain the cause of these revolutions.
I really think what is needed is a content analysis of Wikileaks. There was a news article i read which might have been in the NYTimes some time back which pointed out:
A lot of material in the famous release of u.s. secret cables by various diplomats and officials confirmed in the mind of many Arabs, especially the young ones, the real extend of corruptions among the leaders and their accumulation of wealth as a result of their leadership positions. While this was felt it was never really proved in the minds of these people until they could read it online or in circulated copies of materials downloaded by others.
I did think this was a cause that was worth considering for the Arab Spring. Given they already did not trust their regular news sources Wikileaks was considered a more trusted source.
I would like to see a real content analysis of Wikileaks to compare to other explanations for the Arab Spring.
--
-- *Distinguished Professor Emeritus Information Systems, NJIT homepage: http://is.njit.edu/turoff * _______________________________________________ The Air-L@listserv.aoir.org mailing list is provided by the Association of Internet Researchers http://aoir.org Subscribe, change options or unsubscribe at: http://listserv.aoir.org/listinfo.cgi/air-l-aoir.org
Join the Association of Internet Researchers: http://www.aoir.org/
-- *Distinguished Professor Emeritus Information Systems, NJIT homepage: http://is.njit.edu/turoff *
participants (2)
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Murray Turoff -
nativebuddha