Hum, I'm sorry, I'm just having trouble understanding why you can't see through the most important problem with electoral analysis: the assumption that distribution of support for a candidate will be equal across all states, and therefore, if you lose these initial states, that means you're out of the race. More importantly, the manipulations of electoral politics by Capitalist media seem to me to be something that make the entire process fraudulent. Have you ever seen a literal horse race in which people were able to bet after the race started? No? Then why do we allow that in our elections? The very nature of the reporting about the race and the speculation about possibilities of winning for particular candidates is a blatant manipulation of the process itself. In effect, U.S. Presidential elections are invalid by default, but maybe I'm not grasping the sociological underpinnings of why we run them this way. Art