--- Martin Garthwaite <marting@gmail.com> wrote:
Lois,
This highlights another problem, with radio and television it was relatively easy to identify technological stabilization; in internet time (whatever that is?) will it ever be possible to identify technological stabilization?
There is a chart that goes around communications circles. It plots the adoption rate for for PCs, Color TV, VCRs, Internet, and Broadband, and what level of adoption is reached within the first 5 years on the market. This chart is usually pulled out in response to the argument that broadband adoption is slow. What the chart reveals, relevant to the broadband argument, is that broadband adoption is on par with the other technological adoption rates. You can see one version of this chart at NTIA https://www.esa.doc.gov/Reports/NationOnlineBroadband04.htm See Figure 2 https://www.esa.doc.gov/Reports/NationOnlineBroadband04_files/image003.gif John Horrigan at Pew Internet has an up to date version of the chart that goes out to 10 years with the same trend lines. What this chart also reveals is that Internet adoption is NOT faster than other technology adoptions. The concept that "Internet Time" is entirely different than other technologies such as TV is not really well supported. What is happening on the Internet may be new, but the advent of other technologies brought on their own periods of innovation, disruption, and uncertainty much like the Internet era. B =~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~= Cybertelecom :: Federal Internet Law & Policy www.cybertelecom.org