new technologies: diffusion comparison diagra
Hi everyone, #1 DVD is diffusing faster than the Internet, as is the mobile phone in many places. It is not unprecedented. Furthermore, the diffusion curve here suggests that television might have been as steep. #2 Everett Roger's book "Diffusion of Innovations" is highly recommended. I haven't read the fifth edition so I cannot speak to it, but the fourth is really great. #3 Internet diffusion should be probably broken down by dail-up vs high-speed and definately by country. #4 It shold also be noted that this chart wold sugest the internet was invented 9 years ago. Would that make the chart 2000, and the internet being correlated with WWW? One should be very careful to make such claims, given that the role of DARPAnet and all sorts of precommercial work has been embedded in the history of the Internet's development. It would still behave like a logarithmic curve but it does inject a different sort of ideology into the picture about who is responsible for the Internet's diffusion, AOL, the FCC or general diffusion trends. #5 There is some evidence to suggest that the Internet will not receive the total diffusion that telelvision did. It is already being outpaced by mobile phones in many places. Nonetheless, this is still an interesting graphic. Thanks! BERNiE Bernie Hogan Ph.D. Student Department of Sociology NetLab, Knowledge Media Design Institute University of Toronto bernie.hogan@utoronto.ca http://edublog.com/hogan/
Bernie says, #2 Everett Roger's book "Diffusion of Innovations" is highly recommended. I haven't read the fifth edition so I cannot speak to it, but the fourth is really great. Ulla answers: The 5th edition is virtually identical to the 4th. It's a few pages longer, a couple of smallish things have been added, and a few of the case studies have been changed (and not all of them for the better...just more up to date topics like Sept 11, but sometimes the point doesn't come across as well as with the old ones). So, it's still a good book, but not necessarily worth buying the new edition. That's my personal opinion. Ulla ---------------------------------------------------- Ulla Bunz Assistant Professor Department of Communication Rutgers University 4 Huntington Street New Brunswick, NJ 08901 Email: bunz@scils.rutgers.edu ----------------------------------------------------
The original question wasn't about general resources (it was about a chart) . . . but since we're talking about Rogers' book . . . Roger Fidler's Mediamorphosis, Understanding New Media is appropriate to undergrads and deals with diffusion in a much more broad way than do some other treatments. Edward Lee Lamoureux, Ph. D. Interim Director, Multimedia Program and New Media Center Associate Professor, Speech Communication 1501 W. Bradley Bradley University Peoria IL 61625 309-677-2378 Editor, Journal of Communication and Religion
Bernie Hogan wrote #1 DVD is diffusing faster than the Internet, as is the mobile phone in many places. It is not unprecedented. Furthermore, the diffusion curve here suggests that television might have been as steep
Hi all, I must support Bernie Hogan's point about the mobile/cellular phone - I am constantly looking for data on mobile/cellular phone uptake and penetration rates ( because it is changing so fast) and everything I see - while quite variable - is consistent in showing that mobile/cellular is far outstripping the Internet in terms of speed of uptake and penetration. (I have a article I wrote about this issue in 1999, if anyone is interested contact me directly and I will send you details.) In many places such as China, India, and Africa the lack or inadequacy of existing telecommunications infrastructure naturally means that the Internet cannot be adopted ( there is no access to fixed line for dial-up Internet connection, let alone Broadband), whereas new mobile networks offer people relatively cheap access to basic communications service and with 3G beginning to roll out mobile internet becomes more viable. The Financial Times ( author -Tobias Buck) reported on November 9 ( Europe Section. p.6) that EU mobile phone use tops 80% of populace This report notes penetration rates are now fast approaching 90 per cent in many EU member states. In Luxembourg, the total number of mobile phones now exceeds the number of inhabitants, with 115 phones for every 100 citizens. The ITU has regular data for the world which might be useful to many, with some free data available, see http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/KeyTelecom99.html and with data on most countries and regions also available via the ITU on an annual basis. On a related note, the postings on this subject remind me of how we need to be careful about the use of statistics and the representation of data - but that is a whole other thread! For those in Europe with an interest in this area the ITU is having a Statistical workshop in conjuction with the World Summit on Information Society organized by: UNECE, UNCTAD, ITU, UNESCO Inst. of Statistics, OECD, Eurostat "Monitoring the Information Society: Data, Measurement and Methods" (Geneva, 8-9 December 2003) See; http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2003.12.wsis.htm For information about the ITU policy on this subject see: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/update/edito.htm ( I am still looking for the perfect graph, and if I ever find it I promise to post it immediately!) Collette Snowden School of Communication, Information and New Media University of South Australia --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? Protect your identity with Yahoo! Mail AddressGuard
Just to add a thought to the conversation, and maybe this has been mentioned somewhere but I missed it, with regards to electronic communication technologies, the faster diffusion rates (which also depend on when you peg the beginning of the technology, I think Winston's "Media, Technology, and Society" talks about that) must be considered in their historical context. So, yes cell phones diffused quickly (at least recently), but they diffused in a world awash with and, importantly, used to, electronic communication techs (ECTs). The same is true of other techs. It seems that more recent ECTs have diffused faster, and if the electronically-awash world (the historical setting) is having an effect, it will help faster diffusion rates. I doubt it explains all of it, but perhaps it explains some. So the DVD diffused rapidly, but a similar technology, videodiscs, failed to diffuse. (Clearly there are reasons for this.) VCRs diffused at a certain pace, but tape-based television recording was tried in the 50s, 60s, and early 70s before Betamax and VHS were rolled out. Does one say "this technology" meaning a specific embodiment? If so, first generation cell phones are not the same as those new phones with cameras in them. Defining a starting point for a technology is difficult and will depend on the research question, but since so many technologies these days are actually technological systems, they have a large number of components with different histories, and the ideas behind those components have different histories as well. So, the Internet, do we measure it from 1993(?), or 1969, or on earlier ideas? Of course "the Internet" of 2003 is not "the Internet" of 1993. ndp... On Thursday, November 13, 2003, at 06:59 PM, Collette Snowden wrote:
Bernie Hogan wrote #1 DVD is diffusing faster than the Internet, as is the mobile phone in many places. It is not unprecedented. Furthermore, the diffusion curve here suggests that television might have been as steep
Hi all, I must support Bernie Hogan's point about the mobile/cellular phone - I am constantly looking for data on mobile/cellular phone uptake and penetration rates ( because it is changing so fast) and everything I see - while quite variable - is consistent in showing that mobile/cellular is far outstripping the Internet in terms of speed of uptake and penetration. (I have a article I wrote about this issue in 1999, if anyone is interested contact me directly and I will send you details.) In many places such as China, India, and Africa the lack or inadequacy of existing telecommunications infrastructure naturally means that the Internet cannot be adopted ( there is no access to fixed line for dial-up Internet connection, let alone Broadband), whereas new mobile networks offer people relatively cheap access to basic communications service and with 3G beginning to roll out mobile internet becomes more viable. The Financial Times ( author -Tobias Buck) reported on November 9 ( Europe Section. p.6) that EU mobile phone use tops 80% of populace This report notes penetration rates are now fast approaching 90 per cent in many EU member states. In Luxembourg, the total number of mobile phones now exceeds the number of inhabitants, with 115 phones for every 100 citizens.
The ITU has regular data for the world which might be useful to many, with some free data available, see http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/KeyTelecom99.html and with data on most countries and regions also available via the ITU on an annual basis. On a related note, the postings on this subject remind me of how we need to be careful about the use of statistics and the representation of data - but that is a whole other thread! For those in Europe with an interest in this area the ITU is having a Statistical workshop in conjuction with the World Summit on Information Society organized by: UNECE, UNCTAD, ITU, UNESCO Inst. of Statistics, OECD, Eurostat "Monitoring the Information Society: Data, Measurement and Methods" (Geneva, 8-9 December 2003) See; http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2003.12.wsis.htm For information about the ITU policy on this subject see: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/update/edito.htm ( I am still looking for the perfect graph, and if I ever find it I promise to post it immediately!) Collette Snowden School of Communication, Information and New Media University of South Australia
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-------------------------------------------------------------------- Nathaniel D. Poor Ph.D. Candidate Dept. of Communication Studies The University of Michigan http://www.umich.edu/~natpoor
participants (5)
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Bernie Hogan -
Collette Snowden -
Ed Lamoureux -
Nathaniel Poor -
Ulla Bunz